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The next 10 years the real estate market will be like?
The next 10 years, on the basis of the existing housing, the total construction will probably have to double. This includes an increase in population, including an increase in per capita area.Some cities of second - hand housing transaction volume has started slightly more than one - hand housing, 10 years later, second - hand housing transaction volume will be 4 times in the first - hand housing. And then gradually developed, about 6: 1, second-hand housing transaction volume reached 60%. The peak time in the United States is 9: 1.
Then the developer is not no thing to do?
No. In accordance with the 2.5% conversion, is 2 billion, this figure is now almost every year the amount of completion. Developers is not no room for production, even if not transition, the amount of new completion is still 1 billion. At that time, not to buy a large area or in the wasteland for construction, but a bit like London, New York, Manhattan, is to pull a building and then cover a building, the company is 10 to 20 million a year building volume.
If you roll out in all cities, the New York is probably the construction of 20 million, less than one-tenth of the new, and transformation of 1.8 million.
China faces a huge problem in the process of urban development.
The government of Chinese cities is the beginning of non-marketization. Therefore, it is the exchange of municipal infrastructure with land, such as Beijing. Fangzhuang, Shuangyushu, Lu Valley, Wangjing is the government's land conversion into infrastructure, those bridges, roads, sewage plants are all developers to build, rather than the government.
55 orders issued by the State Council, the land can be sold later, really began to have a non-public economy into the land market. Thus, the combination of the old city and the new city of land to transform the old city, which has become an important means of local government transformation of municipal infrastructure.
However, in New York, Paris, London, their old city reconstruction and new town construction is completely disconnected. Because the land is private, so in the city to expand around the building, the city increased scale, are outsiders to enter the periphery, very few rich people directly into the city center. After the construction of the extension was almost, and then return to the city center, the transformation of the old city.
The advantage is that the price of the old city and Metro prices cut off. Metro building housing prices did not grow at a high speed, when the transformation of the old city, Metro prices rise, in between the two price differentials to find a relative balance.
The Chinese government is to put the old city and Metro together, the demolition of the old city to give you 6000 dollars, Metro house far away from the urban areas, but also to sell 6000. Because they know you can get 6000 dollars to buy a new house. As a result, upset the price system, which is caused by non-market factors.
In the course of future development, the transformation of the old city faces several problems.
First, a lot of things in the old city is no land of years. If anyone has the ability, now with a high price, or slightly higher than the market price of the price of those who have not land for years to buy the house, including government-owned, public ownership, public factories and mines all. Because it will be in the future transformation.
The most typical transformation occurred in Shekou, Shenzhen. Shekou is the first batch of China's reform, the first to introduce low-level processing industry, "three to a meeting", two out, a large number of garment factories, these garment factories are basically removed. They called "Teng cage for birds", in fact, is the transformation of the old city in the form of the backward processing industry into high-grade office buildings and residential.
Because this area does not require migrant workers, and the need for the city's owner, so this transformation began to gradually enter. Shenzhen as a typical, can be used as a case, that is, the future of urban development, may be similar to this form of Shenzhen.
This model of transformation of the old city, in ten years, may become mainstream. New levy a piece of land to build new city model may be less and less.
Why this decade there is a chance?
Because we need a lot of urbanization. The central finance and economic leading group specifically mentioned that there should be at least 10 or 20 similar big cities such as Beijing, at least 16. It is expected that 10 years, there are a lot of new.
The next 10 years, real estate may still become the main pillar of the Chinese economy. In a period of time, have to rely on real estate to stimulate China 's economy and the realization of China' s urbanization.